This is why Elon Musk is proceeding very carefully with the first Starship orbital flight…
Huge thanks to:
Tamás Török:
RoBossBomb:
LabPadre:
Lewis Knaggs:
TijnM:
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SpaceX’s Starship is no stranger to explosions, ruptures, and failed landings. The company went through more than 10 times to get only 1 successful landing of Starship Sn 15 from 10 km.
Tell me do you think SpaceX’s upcoming first orbital flight can succeed?
For me, definitely NO, simply because Starship is a new system trying to do unusual things.
Even Elon Musk recently admitted that “We are proceeding very carefully. If there is a RUD on the pad, Starship progress will be set back by ~6 months.”
So, why are so many worried about Starship orbital flight “FAILURE”?
What would happen if a full stack explodes?
Find out in today’s episode of Alpha Tech:
Now, to make it easier to imagine, let’s look back at the previous terrifying explosions in the history of rockets in the world, including those of the previous generation of SpaceX rockets.
First, one of the biggest rocket explosions ever was the N1 in 1969.
The launch took place at 11:18 PM Moscow time. For a few moments, the rocket lifted into the night sky. As soon as it cleared the tower, there was a flash of light, and debris could be seen falling from the bottom of the first stage. All the engines instantly shut down except engine #18. This caused the N-1 to lean over at a 45-degree angle and drop back onto launchpad 110 East.
The nearly 2300 tons of propellant onboard triggered a massive blast and shock wave that shattered windows across the launch complex and sent debris flying as far as 10 kilometers (6 miles) from the center of the explosion.
The entire rocket contained about 680,000 kg (680 t) of kerosene and 1,780,000 kg (1,780 t) of liquid oxygen. Using a standard energy release of 43 MJ/kg of kerosene gives about 29 TJ for the energy of the explosion (about 6.93 kt TNT equivalent).
Talking about TNT, TNT equivalent is a convention for expressing energy, typically used to describe the energy released in an explosion. The tonne of TNT is a unit of energy defined by that convention to be 4.184 gigajoules, which is the approximate energy released in the detonation of a metric ton (1,000 kilograms) of TNT. In other words, for each gram of TNT exploded, 4.184 kilojoules (or 4184 joules) of energy is released.
Investigators later determined that up to 85% of the fuel in the rocket did not detonate, meaning that the blast yield was likely no more than 1 kt TNT equivalent. Comparing explosions of initially unmixed fuels is difficult (being part detonation and part deflagration).
It also took 18 months to rebuild the launch pad and delayed launches. This was one of the largest artificial non-nuclear explosions in human history and was visible that evening 35 kilometers (22 miles) away at Leninsk.
After five terrible failures, the N1 program was suspended in 1974 and officially canceled in 1976.
This is why Elon Musk is proceeding very carefully with the first Starship orbital flight…
